AGP Executive Report

Sanctions Tightened: Switzerland expanded its sanctions against Russia and Belarus, adding 115 people/entities to asset freezes and funding bans and tightening export controls on 60 more firms tied to Russia’s military-industrial and energy sectors. Nuclear Drills in Belarus: Russia and Belarus wrapped major joint nuclear exercises, with Lukashenko inspecting Iskander systems as drills reportedly involved 64,000 troops and nuclear-capable platforms—raising fresh alarm across Europe. Ukraine Strikes Deep: Kyiv claimed drone hits on Russian oil assets, including the Syzran refinery, as well as attacks on occupied-region targets—while Russia continues to report frontline gains. CIS Diplomacy: Belarus PM Aleksandr Turchin attended the CIS Heads of Government meeting in Ashgabat, with Minsk also flagged for CIS Youth Capital status. Beltelecom Goes Mobile Video: Beltelecom launched Ogo!Kino for iOS devices, extending its TV and phone video push. EU/Industry Pressure Point: The week’s biggest Belarus-relevant theme is still security-linked disruption—sanctions, nuclear signaling, and energy-linked targeting—while concrete Belarus industrial updates remain limited.

Ukraine–Russia Escalation: Ukrainian drones struck the Syzran oil refinery deep inside Russia (over 800 km), sparking a major fire as Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s May long-range plan is “largely in full,” while another drone attack hit a Bryansk border town, killing three rail workers and damaging a locomotive at Unecha station. Belarus–Russia Nuclear Posture: Russia and Belarus wrapped up joint nuclear drills with missile convoys, submarines and strategic aircraft, as Putin told Lukashenko the use of nuclear weapons is a “last resort,” and Lukashenko said he’d “dreamed” of the Iskander-M systems now in Belarus. Northern Border Pressure: Zelenskyy visited Slavutych to coordinate defenses, warning Belarus not to let Moscow pull Minsk deeper into the war and pledging “severe consequences” for any aggressive move. UN Climate Ruling: The UN General Assembly backed an ICJ climate opinion 141–8, with Belarus among the opponents—another reminder that legal pressure on fossil-fuel states is rising even as the war economy tightens. Belarus Economy (Domestic): Belstat says small and medium-sized businesses contributed 27.4% of GDP, with construction and housing still under strain as officials push regions to hit targets.

Cyber & Finance: Infrawatch just raised $3M pre-seed to build infrastructure-focused cybersecurity intelligence, betting that attackers leave a more “static” trail at the network level than their tactics do. Food Security: Uzbekistan and Belarus signed a food-sector cooperation deal after talks in Tashkent, with a trilateral agreement aimed at boosting trade and practical ministry-to-ministry projects. Crime & Sanctions Pressure: Kyrgyzstan ordered 50 companies to stop operating over sanctions-risk concerns, citing secondary-sanctions exposure as the EU tightens enforcement. War & Drones: Lithuania issued a major drone alert tied to activity from neighboring Belarus, sending Vilnius leaders and residents to shelters and grounding airspace—while Zelenskyy warned Russia is weighing scenarios for renewed pressure via the Belarus direction. Climate Law: The UN General Assembly backed a world court climate opinion, voting 141-8; Belarus was among the eight countries opposing. Nuclear Posture: Russia reported large-scale nuclear readiness drills involving units coordinated with Belarus, as NATO leaders again pressed for stronger defense spending.

Drone Alarm Escalates NATO Jitters: Lithuania ordered “shelter in place” and scrambled jets after a suspected drone threat near the Belarus border, with Vilnius airspace briefly closed and top officials rushed to safe locations—another reminder that the Belarus-linked security line is getting hotter. Sanctions Reality Check: A new EU sanctions analysis argues the bloc’s measures only work if enforcement is tight, legal rules are precise, and political unity holds—otherwise costs land in the wrong places. Belarus in the Nuclear Shadow: Russia and Belarus launched joint nuclear drills simulating retaliatory strikes, while Ukraine warns the war could expand through Belarus—raising pressure on Minsk’s role as a launchpad. Fertilizer Pressure Point: With fertilizer prices still tied to the Middle East supply shock, the EU is moving emergency money for farmers, but critics say it won’t be enough fast. Diplomacy & Deals: Belarus and Venezuela reviewed cooperation plans, while Belarus and Indonesia signed enterprise agreements worth about $427m, including potash and EV-related cooperation. Local Industry Watch: Belarusian street art divers appeared at the Venice Biennale, showing soft-power momentum alongside hard-security headlines.

Baltic Security Shock: Lithuania’s president and prime minister were rushed to shelters after a drone alarm near the Belarus border, with Vilnius airspace closed and “shelter in place” warnings issued as officials said it was likely a combat or deception drone. EU Response: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen called Russia’s public threats “completely unacceptable,” saying Russia and Belarus bear direct responsibility for drones endangering the bloc’s eastern flank. Nuclear Shadow Over the Region: Russia began massive nuclear-force drills with Belarus, practicing nuclear deployment and cooperation as Ukraine’s drone attacks intensify. Belarus Economy Watch: Belarus cut its refinancing rate by 0.5 points to 9.25%, citing slowing inflation. Industry & Trade: Belarus and Indonesia signed enterprise deals worth about $427m, including fertilizer and EV-related cooperation.

Belarus-Russia Nuclear Posture: Russia kicked off three days of massive nuclear-force drills with Belarus, practicing nuclear-capable missile launches and cooperation with Minsk as Ukraine’s drone attacks intensify—an escalation that Kyiv says is meant to pull Ukrainian forces north. Ukraine’s Industrial Pressure: Ukraine reported strikes on Russia’s major Lukoil refinery in Kstovo and an oil pumping station in Yaroslavl, aiming at fuel capacity used to support the war. Fertilizer Shock Hits Europe: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions still driving fertilizer prices up, the EU is leaning toward emergency support for farmers and longer-term “natural fertilizer” plans, while Brussels faces criticism for moving too slowly. Belarus Agriculture Policy: Minsk opened public discussion on a draft farm law to modernize peasant (farm) holdings, including wider participation in state supply schemes—coming amid ongoing food and potato concerns. Construction Diplomacy: Belarus and Azerbaijan used WUF13 meetings to push cooperation in construction and safety.

Nuclear Drills in Belarus: Russia has kicked off two days of large-scale nuclear-force exercises with Belarus, practicing missile launches and “logistical support” for nuclear weapons staged on Belarusian territory—an escalation that Kyiv says is meant to pressure Ukraine ahead of a summer push. Ukraine Pressure & Industrial Risk: The drills land as Ukraine intensifies drone strikes, including attacks tied to Russia’s military-industrial and energy infrastructure, raising the stakes for regional security and supply chains. Fertilizer Squeeze Looms: Separately, EU policymakers are still wrestling with fertilizer shortages and price shocks, with Brussels looking at manure-based inputs while gas-linked production costs and Hormuz-linked disruptions keep pressure on food prices. Belarus Dairy Buildout: On the economic front, Belarus approved a list of dairy-farm construction and reconstruction projects, setting a 2026 cap on heifer pricing and signaling continued investment in agro capacity. E-commerce Infrastructure Race: Wildberries’ Uzbekistan push highlights the next phase of online competition—less discounting, more warehouses, logistics, and fintech—an approach Belarus exporters may watch closely.

Nuclear Drills Escalation: Belarus has started snap nuclear exercises with Russia, practicing delivery and readiness in “unprepared locations,” while Ukraine condemns the move as a dangerous staging ground near NATO borders. War-Planning Context: A Ukrainian strategist says the “Belarus front” is being opened to pull Kyiv’s forces north ahead of a planned Russian summer offensive. Cyber Pressure: ESET reports Belarus-linked FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter is running a renewed Ukraine campaign using malicious PDFs, JavaScript, scheduled-task persistence, and Cobalt Strike. Ukraine Frontline Strain: In northern Pokrovsk, Ukrainian positions are “almost cut off” as Russian drones and electronic warfare tighten control. Disinformation Watch: Poland medicine-shortage claims were flagged as false after CTV used an old video with mismatched meaning. Trade & Diplomacy: Indonesia and Belarus signed a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap, including talks on direct flights and EV/semiconductor and fertilizer collaboration.

Belarus-Linked E-Commerce Oversight: Belarus’ Ministry of Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade (MART) signed a unified deal with seven platforms (Euroopt, Yandex Food, Belposhta, Ozon, Flowwow, Onliner, Delivio) to push transparency for sellers, expand pickup/courier coverage in remote areas, and curb listings tied to “extremism,” while inviting Wildberries to join on equal terms. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukraine says Russia is preparing strikes on “decision-making centers” including Kyiv’s office and state residence, while Zelensky warns Belarus is being pulled deeper into the war; the wider week also featured major drone attacks and a Kyiv mourning day after a strike that killed 24. Diplomacy & Industry Links: Indonesia and Belarus advanced cooperation ahead of Lukashenko’s July visit—roadmaps, direct-flight talks, visa alignment, and deals worth Rp7 trillion—covering EVs, semiconductors, and potassium fertilizers.

Ukraine–Russia Deep Strikes: Ukraine says it hit Moscow-region defense industry and oil infrastructure overnight May 16–17, including the Angstrem microelectronics plant in Zelenograd and a key ring oil pumping site near Moscow, as Russia reports deaths and blames “drone debris.” Belarus in the War Debate: Ukrainian officials again accuse Minsk of enabling attacks via air corridors for Shahed drones, while Kyiv also warns Russia may target “decision-making centers” and suggests Belarus could be pulled into new operations. Belarus Trade & Regulation: Belarus’ antimonopoly regulator MART signed a unified deal with seven major online platforms to boost sales of domestic goods, require seller transparency, expand pickup/courier coverage in remote areas, and curb listings tied to “extremism” materials—while Wildberries was not included. Belarus–Indonesia Push: Indonesia and Belarus advanced a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and signed Rp7 trillion in business MoUs, with talks covering EVs, semiconductors, and potassium fertilizers. Chernobyl Memory: A new Chernobyl anniversary story highlights how little warning people near the disaster received in 1986, including families now living in Belarus.

Border Pressure & Migrant Weaponization: Poland’s 18th “Iron Division” is being used along the Belarus border as Warsaw warns Russia and Belarus are pushing illegal migrants toward NATO—an issue framed as reaching even the US. Diplomacy That Looks Like Deals: Indonesia and Belarus are lining up a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap ahead of Lukashenko’s July visit, with talks on direct flights, visa alignment, and new industrial areas like electric vehicles, semiconductors, and potassium fertilizers. Trade Push: Indonesia-Belarus talks in Minsk produced Rp7 trillion in business commitments across agriculture, dairy, machinery, and logistics. War-Linked Escalation Claims: Ukraine says Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, including possible operations toward Kyiv/Chernihiv or NATO, while warning of “decision-making centers.” E-commerce Governance: Belarus’s antimonopoly regulator signed a unified agreement with seven online platforms to boost domestic goods, require seller transparency, expand delivery/pickup in remote areas, and curb listings tied to “extremism.”

Ukraine War Spillover: Kyiv marked mourning after a Russian strike killed 24 people, including three girls, while Ukraine pressed retaliatory long-range strikes and warned Russia is trying to pull Belarus deeper into the fight. Belarus-Russia Pressure: Zelensky says Moscow is exploring operations from Belarus toward the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis or even NATO territory, and Ukraine is reinforcing the border direction. Frontline Narrative Control: In a fresh ISW readout, Russia’s top command is again accused of wildly inaccurate battlefield claims around Kupyansk and Lyman. Belarus Trade & Oversight: Belarus’ antimonopoly regulator (MART) signed a unified agreement with seven e-commerce platforms to boost transparency, promote domestic goods, and expand delivery/pickup in remote areas—while Wildberries was not included. Industry Diplomacy: Belarus and Indonesia agreed a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and Rp7 trillion in business deals in Minsk, spanning agriculture, machinery, and industrial projects. Defense Tech: NATO’s counter-drone push continues with Project Flytrap 5.0 scaling from soldier to squadron level in exercises near the Belarus border.

Counter-drone training near Belarus: Project Flytrap 5.0 is being tested in Lithuania as U.S. and UK forces network counter-UAS tech from soldier to squadron level against live drone threats—an explicit answer to the swarm tactics reshaping the battlefield. Belarus pulled deeper into the war: Ukraine says Russia is trying to draw Minsk into new operations, with plans for strikes either toward the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis or against NATO-linked targets, while Zelensky also warns of “decision-making centers” being targeted. Kyiv strike, POW swap: After a Russian missile hit killed 24 in Kyiv (including three girls), Ukraine vowed retaliatory long-range strikes; hours later, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 POWs each, with Belarus named in the transfer process. Industry diplomacy: Indonesia and Belarus signed a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap and Rp7 trillion in business MoUs in Minsk, focusing on machinery, agriculture, and food security. Belarus economy pressure: Ukraine’s intelligence service reports Belarus’s economy shrank in Q1 alongside Russia, raising stagflation risks as borrowing costs bite.

Kyiv Aftermath & POW Swap: Kyiv is in mourning after a Russian strike killed 24 people, including three girls, with Zelensky laying flowers at the rubble and vowing “brutal terror” will be met with retaliation; rescue work ran for more than 28 hours as 205 Ukrainian soldiers were freed in a fresh 205-for-205 POW exchange. Retaliation Signals: Zelensky says Ukraine is “entirely justified” in hitting Russia’s oil and weapons industries and warns Moscow is planning new missile and drone attacks on “decision-making centers,” including his office and state residence. Belarus as a Pressure Point: Zelensky also claims Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, with plans for operations from the Belarus direction toward Chernihiv-Kyiv or even NATO territory. Belarus Economy Watch: Separate reporting flags Belarus’s economy shrinking in Q1 alongside Russia, raising stagflation fears as borrowing costs bite. Cyber Front: ESET says the Belarus-linked FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter group has resumed spear-phishing attacks on Ukrainian government targets, using updated delivery tricks.

Ukraine War & Diplomacy: Kyiv marked a day of mourning after a Russian strike killed 24 people, including three girls, while a prisoner swap still went ahead with 205 POWs released on each side. Belarus-Linked Cyber: ESET reports the Belarus-aligned FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter group is hitting Ukrainian government targets again, using spear-phishing PDFs that impersonate Ukrtelecom and then deliver malware only to selected victims. Belarus Economy Pressure: Ukraine’s intelligence service says Belarus’s economy shrank 0.4% in Q1 2026 as Russia contracted, with higher Russian borrowing costs raising the risk of stagflation in Minsk. Energy Integration: EAEU members, including Belarus, are discussing further delays—up to 2030—for parts of the single electricity market. Trade & Industry Moves: Indonesia’s economic minister visited Belarus’s MTZ, MAZ and BelAZ to explore tractor and vehicle cooperation for agricultural modernization. Crypto Regulation: Belarusian “cryptobanks” have been cleared to process 26 approved cryptocurrencies, including major stablecoins and large-cap coins. Health Watch: Belarus reports about 50 hantavirus hospitalizations a year, with transmission mainly linked to rodents.

Ukraine War Watch: Russia kept up near-continuous long-range strikes with 1,600+ drones and missiles over two days, heavily hitting Kyiv and leaving high civilian casualties, while Ukraine says it shot down/jammed 710 of 753 drones in one daytime wave and notes Belarus territory was used for some drone routes. Cyber & Espionage: Belarus-aligned FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter returned with spearphishing PDFs targeting Polish and Ukrainian government orgs, using a fresh delivery chain to reach Cobalt Strike; separately, researchers flagged malicious node-ipc versions (9.1.6, 9.2.3, 12.0.1) designed to steal developer and cloud secrets. Fertilizer Shock: World Bank data shows fertilizer prices jumped again in 2026Q1, driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with urea leading gains and a further rise projected for 2026. Belarus Business & Finance: Minsk’s Hi-Tech Park says “cryptobanks” can process 26 preapproved cryptocurrencies, including major coins and stablecoins. Diplomacy & Trade: Belarus and Sri Lanka signed an air services pact and MoUs on education/healthcare, aiming for direct flights by year-end; Belarus also welcomed an Indonesian delegation for industrial visits and a joint trade commission.