AGP Executive Report

Belarus Industry Watch: Belstat reports industrial output fell 0.7% in Jan–Jun 2026, with manufacturing down 2.1% while electricity/gas supply rose 7.9%—and the biggest regional drops hit Mahiliou (-4.5%), Hrodna (-4.0%) and Minsk (-3.9%). Wages & labor market: Belarus’ median gross wage reached 2,314.9 roubles in May 2026, up year-on-year, with construction and mining leading sector pay. Prosecutor crackdown on water impacts: Belarus’ Prosecutor General’s Office says local authorities repeatedly failed to prevent mass fish deaths, citing 86 incidents over three years and gaps in rules and oversight. Cross-border industry ties: Belarus and Uzbekistan are expanding cooperation after Minsk talks—310 joint projects worth $2bn, including mechanical engineering, agriculture, pharma and textiles, plus new livestock complex initiatives. Workforce pipeline: Belarus plans to recruit 5,000 more workers from Uzbekistan from Sept 2026 in groups of 500, with promises of equal treatment for families. Agribusiness & trade: A Belarus dairy export scheme saw 15 people convicted in a $100m case, underscoring pressure on food-industry compliance.

Belarus-Linked Trade & Industry: Uzbekistan and Belarus moved closer on production cooperation after Mirziyoyev’s Minsk visit, agreeing to raise bilateral trade to $2bn and launch 310 joint projects across mechanical engineering, agriculture, pharma, textiles, wood processing and healthcare, with livestock-complex plans in Vitsyebsk and Andijan. Agriculture Output: Belstat reports agricultural production up 4.7% in the first half of 2026, with growth in livestock, milk and eggs. Linen Supply Chain: Orsha’s linen sector is spotlighted as Belarusian flax and processing link into China’s textile market, reinforcing a long-running Belarus–China industrial partnership. Fuel & Food Security Pressure: Kyrgyzstan imposed an indefinite ban on exporting fuel to protect domestic supply amid Russia’s refinery disruptions; separate reports note Russia is also restricting imports of tomato seeds from a French producer, including via Belarus. Baltic Security Signals: Lithuania and Latvia warned Russia may carry out targeted attacks on energy and transport infrastructure to “test” NATO, while Belarus is repeatedly mentioned in the regional security context. Cyber Risk: The US Treasury sanctioned a Belarus-linked figure tied to “cryptors” used by ransomware groups, alongside a VPN provider.

Baltic Security: Lithuania and Latvia say Russia is planning targeted sabotage against energy and transport infrastructure in the Baltics and Poland, warning the next months could be a key test of NATO’s Article 5. Belarus Sanctions & Trade: Russia has banned supplies from three Belarusian companies, while Latvia is set to restrict imports of books, toys, clothing and other goods produced in Belarus and Russia (transit won’t be hit). Fuel Shock in the Region: Kyrgyzstan has imposed an indefinite ban on exporting crude oil and petroleum products by road and rail as it tries to protect domestic supply after Russia’s refining disruptions; the wider Central Asia fuel squeeze is pushing prices up. Belarus Industry & Investment: Four Belarusian firms will invest nearly one billion rubles in Vitsyebsk region projects spanning poultry, cattle fattening, dairy modernization and fermented milk production. Agriculture Output: Belstat reports agricultural production up 4.7% in H1, with growth in livestock, milk and eggs. Food & Dairy Policy: Belarus removes milk and kefir from price controls, signaling a shift in how consumer staples are regulated. Logistics: FESCO launches a container train from Belarus to Novorossiysk, adding another rail route for freight. Energy Transition (EU context): The EU backs a push for much more electricity storage by 2028, arguing batteries are needed to curb curtailment and negative power prices. Cyber & Ransomware: The US Treasury sanctions a VPN provider and a Belarus-linked cryptor seller tied to ransomware operations.

Belarus–China Industry Link: Orsha’s linen mills are pitching Belarus flax and processing know-how to China, framing linen as a growing trade and people-to-people bridge. Fuel Shock in the Region: Kyrgyzstan has indefinitely banned exports of gasoline, diesel and oil as Russia’s refining disruptions bite; it says it has contracts with Belarus and China to plug gaps. Belarus Exports Under Pressure: Russia’s veterinary watchdog has banned supplies from three Belarusian firms—poultry from Skidzel, beef from Donapris, and cheese from Turau—effective July 14. Agro-Industrial Investment: Four Belarusian companies are set to invest nearly 1 billion rubles in Vitsyebsk region projects, including poultry and cattle fattening, dairy modernization, and livestock complexes. Fertiliser Push: Belarusian Potash Company is expanding beyond potash into nitrogen and compound fertilisers and potassium nitrate, aiming for “one-stop” supply and logistics. Logistics for Sanctions-Era Trade: FESCO launched a container train from Belarus to Novorossiysk, then onward by sea to Turkey, to speed export routes for Belarusian producers. EU Trade Friction: Latvia plans to ban imports of books, toys, clothing and other goods produced in Belarus and Russia, while allowing transit through Latvia. Workforce & Education: Belarus enrolled about 5,600 students under the target-admission scheme (90% of the plan), with engineering, agriculture, and medical tracks leading. Cyber/Crime Fallout: The US Treasury sanctioned a VPN provider and a Belarus-linked cryptor seller tied to ransomware infrastructure.

Belarus–Russia logistics: FESCO launched its first container train from Belarus to Novorossiysk, aiming to speed up export shipments and build a single logistics chain for Belarusian producers to markets across India, the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and Southeast Asia. Belarus–Uzbekistan industrial cooperation: Lukashenka was briefed in Vitsyebsk on agreements with Uzbekistan’s Andijan region, including plans to send workers and set up livestock-raising capacity; separately, Belarus and Uzbekistan signed a strategic partnership package covering economic, labor, scientific and cultural cooperation. Agro & food industry: Belarusian Potash Company expanded its fertiliser portfolio to include nitrogen fertilisers, compound mineral fertilisers and potassium nitrate, positioning itself as a one-stop trader; the Academy of Sciences estimates Belarus’ grain potential at 15 million tonnes under favorable conditions. Regional energy pressure with Belarus links: Russia’s fuel crisis is worsening after refinery disruptions, with knock-on effects reported for hospitals and fire services; the crisis is also driving renewed fuel trade routes involving Belarus. Customs & manufacturing compliance risk: A Belarus Investigative Center probe alleges Chinese enduro motorcycles were imported via Belarus at undervalued prices to cut customs payments, with shipments routed through Brandshandel. Education pipeline for industry: Belarus universities enrolled about 5,600 target-admission students (90% of plan), with engineering/technical, agriculture and medical intakes highlighted.

Belarus–Uzbekistan Industrial Push: Uzbekistan and Belarus elevated ties to a strategic partnership in Minsk, with a 2026–2030 roadmap covering trade and cooperation plus labor, agriculture, science and culture—aiming to double bilateral trade to $2bn. Agriculture & Food Supply: Belarus is moving away from “price-regulated” lists by cutting the number of controlled goods from 199 to 76, while also capping retail-chain markups on their own-produced food-service items (10% markup for processed meat, chicken, fish, bakery and similar categories). Construction & Urban Transport: Minsk Metro’s Circle Line could see preparatory work start this year, with an initial ~4 km stretch and three stations planned, including site clearance for tunnel boring. Health & Pharma Distribution: Santhera expanded Biomedica’s exclusive distribution of AGAMREE® (vamorolone) to cover Georgia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Logistics & Trade Links: Belarusian investment goods exports rose 0.8% to $1.66bn in Jan–May, alongside growth in intermediate and consumer goods trade. Energy Policy Signal: Lukashenka urged switching Belarus heating to wood pellets and firewood to save gas, citing domestic pellet capacity after EU sanctions squeezed exports. Regional Market Context: Kazakhstan reported higher butter and sunflower oil output and exports in Jan–Apr, with Belarus among key destinations.

Education & Labor Pipeline: Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service says Belarus is steering students away from bachelor and especially master tracks, with bachelor enrollment down nearly fourfold since 2020 and master numbers collapsing to just 23 by 2025, as the state pushes more ninth-graders into colleges and vocational schools to plug an estimated 132,000-worker gap. Food & Retail Pricing: Belarus is cutting the list of price-regulated goods from 199 to 76, while adding a markup cap for retail chains’ own-produced food-service items—processed meat, chicken, fish, lightly salted fish, and bakery—limiting the markup to 10%. Trade & Industry Performance: Belstat reports Belarusian exports of investment goods rose 0.8% to $1.66bn in Jan–May, alongside gains in intermediate and consumer goods, including higher food exports. Infrastructure & Construction: Preparatory work for Minsk Metro’s Circle Line could start this year, with an initial ~4 km segment and three stations planned, including site clearance for tunnel-boring equipment. Diplomacy for Business Links: Belarus and Uzbekistan upgraded ties to a strategic partnership in Minsk, with a 2026–2030 roadmap covering labor, agriculture, science, and trade targets. Energy & Heating Policy: Lukashenka urged switching Belarus heating to wood pellets and firewood, citing pellet availability at home after EU sanctions closed export markets. Health & Pharma Distribution: Santhera expanded Biomedica’s exclusive distribution of AGAMREE® to include Belarus and other Central Asian markets for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Agriculture Tech: Chile launched an AI-based early-warning system to forecast spotted-wing fruit fly risk for soft-fruit growers, aiming to cut infestations by 30–60%. International Cooperation: Belarus and Mozambique discussed using Mozambican ports to route Belarusian exports to Southern Africa and joint logistics for agriculture and mechanisation.

Pharma Expansion: Santhera Pharmaceuticals said it is extending its Biomedica distribution deal for AGAMREE® (vamorolone) to cover Georgia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, aiming to widen access for Duchenne muscular dystrophy patients. Energy & Industry Shock: Ukraine-linked strikes and Russia’s refining strain are rippling into regional fuel markets; Reuters reports Russian gasoline output at about 65% of seasonal demand, while Belarus fuel imports are described as covering only a few days of Russia’s shortage. Fuel Logistics Pressure: Kyrgyzstan plans to import 60,000–70,000 tons of fuel monthly from Belarus as it looks beyond Russia, with transit routes still involving Russia. Trade & Food Processing: Uzbekistan and Belarus are moving toward deeper food-industry ties, including joint baby food production plans using local inputs. Diplomacy for Exports: Belarus is discussing using Mozambican ports to export Belarusian goods to southern Africa, alongside agriculture and food-security projects. Defense-Industry Context: A NAKO study says Russia’s Oreshnik missile relies heavily on electronic components made in Russia and Belarus, with most suppliers already under sanctions.

Belarus–Russia Energy Link Under Strain: Ukraine’s strikes on Russian fuel logistics are hitting the wider region hard, with reports that Belarusian fuel imports cover only about three days of Russia’s shortage—while Russia’s gasoline production is down to roughly 65% of seasonal demand and Moscow has tightened export rules. Central Asia Fuel Squeeze: Central Asian states are scrambling as diesel and gasoline disruptions spread; Kyrgyzstan has lifted price controls and is seeking backup supplies, including planned monthly fuel deliveries from Belarus (60,000–70,000 tons). Defense-Industry Supply Chains: A NAKO investigation says Russia’s Oreshnik missile uses electronic components made across Russia and Belarus, with most suppliers already under sanctions—highlighting how Belarus-linked firms can sit inside high-tech military production. Belarus Border Posture: Ukraine says Belarus is expanding military infrastructure near the border—training grounds, logistics routes, and storage—while warning Russia is still trying to pressure Minsk into deeper involvement. Food-Industry Cooperation: Uzbekistan and Belarus are pushing joint food projects, including baby food production, as both sides look to deepen industrial ties and trade. Mozambique Trade Route Idea: Belarus’ foreign minister discussed using Mozambican ports to export Belarusian goods to southern Africa, alongside agriculture and food-security projects.

Belarus-Russia Fuel Crunch: Ukrainian strikes are hitting Russia’s fuel logistics hard, with reports that Russia is closing parts of maritime routes in the Sea of Azov after drone attacks on dozens of vessels; Reuters also says Russian gasoline output has fallen to about 65% of seasonal demand, leaving a daily shortfall of roughly 35%, while Belarus fuel imports are covering only around three days of the gap. Defense-Industry Supply Chains: A NAKO study says Russia’s Oreshnik missile uses a large share of electronics made by firms in Russia and Belarus, identifying about 470 components from 25 companies, though most are already under sanctions. EAEU Industrial Links (Food): Uzbekistan and Belarus are pushing deeper food-sector cooperation, including joint baby food production in Uzbekistan using local meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables. EAEU Market Regulation: An EAEU labeling system update reports Belarus saw big jumps after labeling—legal footwear imports rose more than threefold, dairy grew over 70%, and light industry goods rose about 60%. Agriculture Mechanisation Gap: A mechanisation push is struggling because farmers lack money to buy equipment, with calls for cheaper options like solar pumps and small tractors.

Belarus–Uzbek Industrial Push: Belarus and Uzbekistan agreed to launch seven new joint manufacturing projects worth $164m, spanning electrical engineering and light industry, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, construction materials and furniture, with new poultry, fruit/veg processing and textile dyeing plans alongside existing work on tractors, cable products and mining equipment. Defense Tech & Sanctions Pressure: NAKO says Russia’s Oreshnik missile relies on a supply chain of about 470 electronic components from 25 confirmed firms in Russia and Belarus, with most manufacturers already hit by sanctions—highlighting how Belarus-linked industry is pulled into Russia’s defense-industrial base. Fuel Crunch Spillover: As Ukrainian drone strikes degrade Russian refining, Reuters reports Russian gasoline output at roughly 65% of seasonal demand, with a 35% summer deficit; Russia is leaning on imports, including record fuel flows from Belarus. Border Militarization Watch: Ukraine says Belarus keeps building military infrastructure along the border—mostly training and logistics sites—raising concern about a potential second-front scenario. Food Industry Cooperation: Uzbekistan is moving toward joint baby food production with Belarusian partners, using locally sourced meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables to deepen industrial ties. Security Tech Procurement: Lithuania tripled funding to €3m to develop systems to detect Belarus-linked weather-balloon smuggling, aiming for prototypes and a pilot batch. Market Compliance & Labeling: EAEU labeling expansion is credited with “whitening” markets and cutting violations, with Belarus seeing major jumps in legal imports and growth in dairy and light industry goods.

Belarus-Russia Defense Industry & Tech Integration: At Russia’s INNOPROM, Belarus Deputy PM Aleksandr Turchin framed “technological sovereignty” as deeper Belarus-Russia industrial integration, pitching joint “full cycle” production without borders. Fuel Crisis Spillover: Ukrainian drone strikes continue to batter Russian refining, cutting Russian gasoline output to about 65% of seasonal demand; Russia is leaning on imports, with Belarus gasoline shipments reported at record levels in June and Russia’s fuel shortages pushing rationing measures in multiple regions. Belarus Border Posture: Ukraine says Belarus is expanding military infrastructure near the border, mainly training and logistics sites, while Minsk’s public assurances it won’t join the war are still under close European scrutiny. Industrial Cooperation with Uzbekistan: Belarus and Uzbekistan agreed to launch seven joint manufacturing projects worth $164m (2026–2030), targeting sectors like electrical engineering, agriculture, pharma, construction materials, furniture, plus projects already underway in tractors, poultry processing and mining equipment. Agriculture Mechanisation Push: Belarus is also moving to operationalize farmer service centres to boost agricultural mechanisation, while Uzbekistan and Belarus expand agricultural research cooperation. Trade & Market Compliance: EAEU labeling rules are credited with boosting legal imports and light industry output in Belarus, alongside major gains in dairy and footwear after implementation. Security Tech Procurement (Lithuania): Lithuania tripled funding for tech to detect Belarus-linked weather-balloon smuggling, signaling tighter cross-border enforcement that can affect regional logistics.

Belarus–Uzbek Industrial Push: Lukashenko and Mirziyoyev signed a declaration upgrading ties to a strategic partnership, with a roadmap to lift bilateral trade to $2bn and expand joint projects in agriculture, mechanical engineering, light industry, furniture, pharma and electrical engineering. EAEU Labeling Effects: Armenia reported a 7% rise in registered producers/importers of mandatory labeled goods in 2025 while violations fell about 56%; Belarus saw legal footwear imports jump more than threefold, dairy up over 70%, and light industry goods up 60% after labeling. Belarus Fuel as Russia’s Lifeline: As Ukraine’s strikes hit Russian refining, Russia boosted gasoline purchases from Belarus about 20-fold in H1 2026 (453,000 tons), with diesel imports also rising; Belarus refineries are now key to keeping supplies moving. Agriculture Mechanization Plan: Belarus-linked agricultural cooperation continues as Uzbekistan and Belarus expand science in plant breeding and seed work, while Belarus robotics adoption is highlighted in production automation. Exhibition Rules Update: Belarus amended national exhibition regulations, expanding the list of events treated as national and formalizing BelCCI’s role in coordinating the calendar. Border Tech Funding: Lithuania tripled funding to €3mn to develop tech to detect Belarus-linked cigarette-smuggling weather balloons.

Belarus–Uzbekistan Industrial Push: Lukashenko and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev signed a declaration upgrading ties to a strategic partnership, with a roadmap to double bilateral trade to $2bn and expand joint projects in agriculture, mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals, electrical engineering, light industry and furniture. Fuel Supply Shock: As Ukraine’s drone campaign hits Russian refineries, Russia is turning to Belarus for gasoline and diesel; Reuters reports record purchases—gasoline up 20-fold in H1 to 453,000 tons, plus rising diesel and jet fuel—highlighting how Belarus refineries are being pulled into regional energy firefighting. Production Automation: Bellegprom is scaling up industrial robotics, including a sewing system that cuts and sews around the clock, alongside a new training and R&D center for robotics and automation engineers. Agriculture Mechanisation Plan: Belarus-linked equipment is in focus as governments push mechanisation; one report says 50 Farmer Service Centres are being built to supply tractors, harvesters, storage and inputs, aiming to boost output and speed up farm services. Exhibition Rules Update: Belarus amended national exhibition and congress regulations, expanding the list of events classified as national and formalizing BelCCI’s role in coordinating the calendar. Antimonopoly Advertising Watch: Belarus’ antimonopoly regulator flagged improper ads, including a meat plant slogan implying unquestionable leadership and misleading claims about partners and facility size.

Belarus–Uzbekistan Trade Push: Lukashenko and Mirziyoyev wrapped talks in Minsk and signed a strategic partnership declaration plus a 2026–2030 roadmap aimed at doubling bilateral trade to $2bn, with industrial cooperation flagged across agriculture, mechanical engineering, pharma, electrical equipment, light industry and furniture. Industrial Automation in Light Manufacturing: Bellegprom says robots are now sewing and cutting underwear around the clock, helping firms quickly meet surges in orders, while a new robotics/automation training and R&D center is set to scale skills for engineers and production specialists. Fuel Supply Shock Spillover: With Russia’s refining hit by drone strikes, Belarusian gasoline exports to Russia reportedly jumped to record levels (about 20x in the first half), while Belarusian officials and analysts warn the shortage could eventually boomerang into local availability and prices. Agriculture Mechanisation Drive: Belarus-linked news from abroad highlights plans for 50 Farmer Service Centres to boost mechanisation and modern production, including tractors, harvesters and storage—an approach Belarus could recognize as it pushes farm productivity. Exhibition Rules Update: Belarus amended national exhibition and congress regulations, expanding what counts as “national” events and formalizing BelCCI’s role in coordinating the calendar. Defense Industry Deliveries: Belarus received 30 upgraded T-72BM2 tanks, modernized with improved fire control and sensor suites.

Belarus Defense Industry: Belarus has received 30 upgraded T-72BM2 tanks for the 11th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade in Slonim, with modernization carried out at the 140 Repair Plant and upgrades focused on improved fire control, sensors and ballistic computing. Fuel & Trade Flows: Belarusian gasoline sales on Russia’s St. Petersburg exchange have collapsed sharply in early July, dropping from thousands of tons to only hundreds, as market rules and pricing incentives push some suppliers away from exchange trading. Regional Energy Security: Kyrgyzstan is scrambling to diversify fuel and lubricants suppliers after Russia’s export restrictions, with negotiations underway involving Belarus (via routes through Russia) alongside China, Uzbekistan and others. Cross-border Investment: Belarus-linked regional business interest is echoed by a new Oman–Jordan investment company (RO 38.5m) targeting energy, mining, agriculture/food and logistics—sectors that often overlap with Belarus industrial capabilities. Policy Watch: A Belarusian defense chief argues tanks remain cost-effective and that modernization continues, while broader regional fuel stress is already spilling into harvest planning.